COVID-19 is having a negative impact on China's advertising expenditure, with market research firm eMarketer lowering its forecast for China's advertising spending in 2020 and beyond.
In its forecast for the third quarter of 2019, eMarketer expects China's total media advertising spending to increase by 10.5% this year to reach US $121.13 billion.
The growth rate has now dropped to 8.4%, with a total value of 113.67 billion US dollars. This is the lowest growth rate since eMarketer began tracking China's advertising expenditures in 2011.
Traditional media, especially print advertising, will be the hardest hit. The decline in newspaper advertising expenditures will exceed expectations and will decline by 16.0% in 2020 to 2.04 billion US dollars.
Magazine advertising spending also fell more than expected, dropping 12.0% to 450 million US dollars. Earlier, eMarketer predicted that Chinese newspaper and magazine advertising expenditures would decline by 8.6% and 5.0% in 2020, respectively.
In 2020, China's outdoor advertising expenditures increased by only 0.7%, and the growth rate was previously estimated at 2.5%. Fewer people are leaving home, which means that the demand for outdoor advertising is also declining.
In the forecast for the third quarter of 2019, China's online advertising spending will grow by 15.2% in 2020, totaling $86.3 billion. However, it is now expected to grow by 13.0%, with expenditures reaching $81.06 billion.
It is worth noting that although some of the impacts of the new coronavirus are obvious, it has not yet felt the full impact on the entire Chinese economy and advertising expenditures.
It is currently expected that normal business will resume in the second half of 2020. If this is not possible, the forecast for the third quarter of 2020 may be lowered further.
In 2020, global media advertising expenditures are expected to reach $691.7 billion, an increase of 7.0% over 2019.
This is also lower than the forecast ratio for the third quarter of 2019 when global advertising spending was expected to increase by 7.4% this year to reach $712.02 billion.
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