2019 will be the third year in a row that the Chinese smartphone market has been declining, as a result the arrival of 5G is highly anticipated by the entire industry.
IDC believes that 5G is an important opportunity to help the Chinese mobile phone market out of the severe winter, but the driving force that really drives the market out of the trough should come from the active changes and innovations made by all industry participants based on new technology trends.
IDC China Research Manager Wang Xi believes that the promotion of 5G to the entire mobile phone industry is undoubted, and the entire industry will make all-round changes to meet the new era.
Starting in 2020, the industry will continue to make active changes from three levels: product design focus, channel positioning, and future ecological construction to embrace the 5G era that has already arrived.
IDC China's top ten predictions for the mobile phone market in 2020 are detailed as follows:
Prediction one
The Chinese market bottomed out: In 2020, the concept of "5G has arrived" will accelerate the entry of the public with the continuous promotion of the entire industry. China's 5G mobile phones will quickly cover the market.
IDC predicts that the growth rate of China's smartphone shipments will return to positive growth in 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7%.
Prediction two
5G market, terminal first: China's 5G markets will be driven by terminal equipment that has quickly penetrated into mainstream price segments. IDC believes that the number of 5G terminal shipments in the short term will lead the number of 5G network users.
Looking at the Chinese historical market, the Chinese market accounts for the largest price segment below 2,000 yuan. It is always the main price segment for major manufacturers.
Therefore, the period when the price of 5G models has dropped to less than 2,000 yuan will become the key to the layout and competition of various manufacturers and upstream suppliers. IDC predicts that in 2020, more than 20% of 5G mobile phones will be priced below 2,000 yuan.
Prediction three
The average unit price will reach the highest peak: With the initial penetration of 5G mobile phones in China, and external macro factors such as exchange rates, IDC predicts that the average unit price of the Chinese mobile phone market will increase by more than 10% year-on-year in 2020.
In the future, the price war of 5G mobile phones will also come in advance, and the long-term average unit price will continue to decline. 2020 will also be the year with the highest average unit price of mobile phones in the Chinese market in the next 5 years.
Prediction four
5G Empowers Commercial Mobile Phones: In a commercial communications environment, stability, flexibility, and security are essential. With the continuous development and coverage of 5G networks, more mobile phones will be used in various industries and will certainly play an important role in the future commercial communication process.
IDC predicts that by 2021, 20% of commercial mobile phones will be connected via 5G to optimize business communication scenarios.
Prediction five
The mobile phone image competition is intensifying: video is the application scenario most closely connected to 5G and the easiest to improve the user experience.
Therefore, photography and camera functions are still the key areas for smart phone upgrades. The competition in terms of quantity and quality of mobile phone cameras will also continue, and the related software strength and content ecological building capabilities will also become a topic of more concern for manufacturers.
IDC predicts that by 2021, more than 50% of mobile phone manufacturers will launch new photographic camera software functions based on new imaging system hardware, and cooperate with video platforms to develop richer video game play.
Prediction six
Product design center of gravity changes: In recent years, a complete full-screen form has always been the goal pursued by all manufacturers. Mechanical lifting, "punching", "bangs", and even sliding covers, dual screens and other solutions emerge endlessly.
At the same time, the corresponding components of 5G functions and the continuously upgraded rear camera module also put forward higher requirements on the design and stacking of the internal structure of the mobile phone.
IDC predicts that in 2020, the use of mechanical structures will be more cautious, and the design of "perforated screens" that take into account the thickness and stability of the fuselage will gradually become the mainstream. In 2020, about one-third of the mobile phone screen will be designed with a "punched screen".
Prediction seven
Folding screen is still a niche: As a new terminal category emerging in 2019, folding screen mobile phones will inject some vitality into the overall industry in the future, but is limited by yield, price, and relatively limited use scenarios and crowds. Folding in the short term Screen phones will still exist as very niche products.
IDC predicts that the market capacity of folding screen mobile phones in the Chinese market will be less than 400,000 units in 2020.
Prediction eight
Reshaping of operator channel positioning: With the gradual cessation of subsidies for smart terminals and the continued pressure drop in channel remuneration, operator channels will reorganize their positioning in the future.
IDC believes that in the future, as the intersection of users, smart terminals, and 5G network services, operators will accelerate the creation of a full-scenario, multi-terminal ecosystem based on their ties, and promote the generation of new 5G business models.
Prediction nine
Traditional channels are facing a new transformation: At present, traditional retail channels still occupy the position of the largest sales channel for smartphones, but with the gradual increase of the proportion of online channels and the reshaping of operator channel positioning, the cooperation model has changed. The new transformation of traditional channels and stores is imminent.
In the future, the introduction of new partners through cross-border integration, the promotion of cross-industry cross-cooperation, targeted promotion models targeted at strong relevant user groups, and the introduction of more diversified ecological categories, and continued construction and promotion of scene experience sales models, will Become the focus of traditional channels.
Prediction ten
The second-hand market is further stimulated: In the future, new technologies such as 5G will give priority to the demand for replacement in 1-2 tier cities, so it will accelerate the generation of more second-hand mobile phones.
Regardless of the consumer side or the industry side, second-hand mobile phones will accelerate to the low-end market in China, and the second-hand mobile phone industry chain will be stimulated and continue to accelerate.
IDC expects that the accelerated activation of the second-hand mobile phone business will not be seen as a challenge by manufacturers alone. Taking advantage of the situation to drive the new machine market and developing new cooperation models to correctly guide the flow of old machines will become the direction for manufacturers' business in the second-hand market.
