At present, many countries are taking measures to slow the spread of the new coronavirus, hoping to delay the peak of the epidemic as much as possible, and hope that the epidemic will improve when the weather becomes hot in summer.
Although there is no scientific evidence that warming temperatures can help the virus to recede, scientists believe that the summer epidemic will be alleviated in terms of the performance of the influenza virus, which may help the medical system better respond to the next wintertime to relapse.
Correlation between epidemic situation and geographical factors
In another paper published by researchers from the University of Maryland and Iran on the SSRN preprinted platform, the relationship between temperature and latitude and new coronavirus pneumonia was analyzed, and the potential of new coronavirus pneumonia was predicted through simplified weather models. diffusion.
The article points out that since the outbreak of the new coronavirus in Hubei, China, its community spread has mainly spread along the east-west direction, and the center points have been roughly distributed along 30-50 ° N, mainly in South Korea, Japan, Iran, northern Italy and emerging communities. Spreads in areas such as the Northwestern United States and France.
Compared with the temperate regions mentioned above, Southeast Asia has a much lower number of patients and reported deaths.
The measurements of average temperature (5-11 °C) and relative humidity (RH, 47-79%) in these regions have striking similarities.
The study emphasizes that although the current correlation between viral transmission and latitude and temperature seems to be strong, the direct causality has not been proven, and predictions are speculative and should be treated with caution.
Although experts including WHO are currently unable to prove whether the virus will dissipate as the temperature rises.
But a study from a Chinese team showed that the outbreak was related to air temperature through analysis of big data, suggesting that warmer air temperature may be beneficial for patients' recovery.
Research from Chongqing University School of Medicine, Guangxi University, National University of Singapore, Suzhou Medical Institute of Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Army Military Medical University gave hints by analyzing the relationship between temperature and cure rate of new coronavirus pneumonia: countries (regions) with higher temperatures The cure rate for patients with new coronavirus disease is significantly higher than in countries (regions) with lower temperatures, and 20 degrees Celsius is the dividing line for increased cure rates.
According to a model designed by the Liao Xiang team of the Neuro-Intelligence Research Center of the Medical College of Chongqing University, in 17 countries that are "cold" (Canadian, Norway, Sweden, South Korea, Germany, the United States, Switzerland, etc.) (the average temperature during the same period is not higher than 20 degrees Celsius) (Region), the median cure rate was only 8.6%.
In contrast, the median cure rate was close to 50 in 10 “warmer” countries (regions) including Australia, Iraq, India, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore (the average temperature was higher than 20 degrees Celsius) %. The study did not include the situation in China.
Liao Xiang's team believes that similar to other viral pathogens that cause respiratory diseases (such as influenza virus), warmer weather is more conducive to the rehabilitation of patients with new coronavirus pneumonia.
New coronavirus may behave differently from flu
However, whether the rising temperature will help patients recover is still to be confirmed by further data.
Brittany Kmush, a public health expert at Syracuse University in New York, USA, said: "Influenza or other coronaviruses do easily peak in winter in the northern hemisphere, but we do not know if the new coronavirus is It is not spreading according to this seasonal pattern. "
Professor Komsh also said that the spread of the virus should not be overly related to geographical factors, because there are still many unknown factors affecting the spread of the virus.
She believes that if the epidemic eases significantly when summer arrives, then people may have to prepare for the virus to make a comeback in winter.
"Respiratory syncytial virus and coronavirus are more stable in dry conditions. This means that influenza epidemics usually occur in the cold winter. But the characteristics of the new coronavirus are still difficult for us to study," said Cao Junji, a researcher at the Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Conclusive. "
Professor Cao Junji also said that Singapore is a tropical city. Now the temperature is over 30 degrees, but there are still more than 100 confirmed cases of infection. "So we still have to take the initiative to control, not wait for the virus to weaken itself," said Professor Cao Junji.
Experts believe that the strong quarantine measures adopted by various countries are conducive to blocking the spread of new coronaviruses, but they may not completely end the resurgence of the virus.
Nelson Michael, a U.S. military medical researcher, warned: "What we are doing now is just to gain time for humanity and prepare for the second peak of the virus."
It is hoped that when the summer comes, the virus will disperse, and potential vaccines will be developed. This way, before the epidemic strikes again this winter, the health care system will have enough room to respond and provide necessary medical treatment for the influx. Means, such as improving herd immunity through vaccination.
Special Report: Fighting The New Coronavirus
