Affected by the new coronavirus, global smartphone shipments in 2020 will be 10% lower than expected, and China's smartphone shipments will be 15% lower than expected, according to a report released by Strategy Analytics on Monday.
Based on the latest information and the escalation of the epidemic situation in more countries and regions, and based on the previous version released on January 30, 2020, Strategy Analytics once again lowered its global and China smartphone shipment forecasts for 2020.
According to Strategy Analytics, the new coronavirus epidemic has spread to more countries these days. It is clear that the epidemic is entering its second phase. China is basically under control and the situation is improving, but in many other countries, including South Korea, Japan, Italy and Iran, the situation is escalating and deteriorating.
The report states that smartphone shipments in all regions will decline year-on-year. If the death toll rises in the next few weeks, you may see a decline in the stock market, a depression in the market, and even greater losses to the entire industry.
During the epidemic, there were no winners in the market. All major smartphone makers will be hit, with shipments expected to be smaller than expected before the outbreak.
The report also believes that smart phone manufacturers are facing inadequate supply chain production capacity, consumer confidence and spending decline. Chinese manufacturers' overseas expansion will also be forced to delay.
Strategy Analytics believes that February/March is the peak of panic and fear, and the epidemic will be brought under control after April/May. The entire smartphone industry will see a weak first half in 2020 and a modest recovery in the second half of 2020.
If the epidemic continues after April/May, the situation will further escalate and cause the stock market to plummet, which will lead to a slowdown in economic growth or enter a recession period, and further reduce consumer confidence. It is expected that the decline in global smartphone shipments will exceed 10 %.
Strategy Analytics recommends that terminal manufacturers, operators and supply chain members take bold new measures to stimulate consumer enthusiasm for online shopping in order to mitigate the impact of the epidemic on offline channels.