Led by SpaceX Starlink, the world has seen a surge in the construction of low-orbit constellation plans, with a significant increase in the number of satellite launches starting in 2017.
On April 20, 2020, satellite Internet was included in the scope of China's new infrastructure for the first time. China's low-orbit satellite constellation construction is also expected to enter a rapid development phase in the future, according to analyst Huang Leping of China International Capital.
In this report, Huang begins by analyzing SpaceX's disruptive innovations and looks at the opportunities for Chinese commercial aerospace companies to grow in the age of satellite Internet.
What is SpaceX's disruptive innovation?
SpaceX has dramatically reduced the cost of launching rockets in the decade or so since its inception.
The Falcon 9 rocket is currently launched at only 30% of the price of its main competitor, the Ariane V.
SpaceX is deploying its StarLink program at a rate of 60 satellite launches every 2-3 weeks, and is expected to become the world's largest satellite Internet operator by the end of 2020.
According to Huang, SpaceX's disruptive innovations include: 1) rocket recyclability; 2) launch technology; and 3) industrial production of satellites as its main technological innovations.
The reason behind its success is the vertically integrated business model of "rocket development + satellite development + launch service", which has formed a relatively obvious cost and speed advantage.
Where are the business opportunities for satellite internet?
Huang sees the main business opportunities for satellite Internet as:
(1) Satellite Internet + electric vehicles to accelerate the development of smart driving.
(2) Satellite Internet + sensors to accelerate the development of the Internet of Things in energy, industry and other industries.
(3) Broadband data upgrades for government, maritime, aircraft, and other corporate private networks.
Driven by the low orbital constellations of countries, Statista predicts that the global space economy will reach a size of about $600 billion by 2030.
Among them, the market for satellite broadband based on satellite Internet will increase to $46 billion, five times between 2020 and 2030, and the market for derivative applications will increase to $99 billion, about 100 times between 2020 and 2030, providing global commercial aerospace and application services companies with a wide development space.
Huang calculates that SpaceX's starchain plan, if the first 1,600 satellites are deployed and commercial services begin in 2020, is expected to break even around 2025 and become a satellite Internet operator serving more than 10 million users worldwide by 2027.
How can Chinese commercial aerospace companies seize the business opportunities of satellite Internet?
Since 2015, China has seen the birth of commercial rocket companies such as i-Space, LandSpace, Galactic Energy, ExPace, Long March, and commercial satellite companies represented by Mino Space, Yinhe, Tianyi Academe and others.
In terms of rockets, the Kuaizhou and Jielong series commercial rockets have been successfully launched into orbit.
On the satellite side, Charming Globe already has a relatively stable service capability in the remote sensing field, and Mino Space has satellite whole-planet design and integration testing capabilities.
Driven by the new infrastructure, Huang believes that the development of these commercial aerospace enterprises is expected to enter the fast lane and at the same time will drive the rapid development of China's commercial aerospace industry chain.
Huang is bullish on the development opportunities brought about by Beidou and the landing of commercial remote sensing applications.
After nearly 20 years of deployment, China's Beidou III satellite navigation system has approached GPS in terms of positioning performance.
Huang is bullish on the landing of Beidou in various vertical industries, which is expected to drive the rapid development of new applications such as intelligent driving, precision agriculture, high-precision mapping and smart city.
Chart: GEO resources in satellite orbit are already stretched, with a tendency to develop towards low and medium orbit satellites
