China saw 5 million 5G smartphone shipments in November, an increace of 103.4% month-on-month and accounting for 14.6% of the total, according to the report released by the China Academy of Information and Communication Technology on Wednesday.
This also means that, for every 100 mobile phones shipped in a month, nearly 15 are 5G mobile phones. Previously, the industry generally believed that the "5G mobile phone replacement wave" that may occur later in 2020 may come earlier.
The factors that set off the wave of 5G mobile phone replacements are nothing less than network, tariffs, chips, and terminals.
Commercial services were officially launched, 5G packages were released, and 5G network construction accelerated.
Following the issuance of a 5G commercial license in China on June 6, this year, the 5G commercial launching ceremony was held on October 31, and the three major operators also officially released 5G packages, marking the official launch of 5G commercial services in China.
From the perspective of 5G packages, operators generally have 5G packages starting from 128 yuan / month, which is still acceptable for users who are willing to try early.
In terms of network coverage, at present, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou and other urban areas have achieved continuous coverage of 5G networks. The first batch of three major operators to provide 5G commercial network services has reached 50 cities.
Although for the vast Chinese market, it is not easy to achieve full coverage of the national 5G network in a short time, but operators have stated that they will continue to expand the coverage of the 5G network.
At present, 113,000 5G base stations have been opened nationwide, and it is expected to reach 130,000 by the end of the year. From the current situation, operators' 5G network construction speed is expected to further accelerate. These positive factors have provided "material security" for the early arrival of the "5G mobile phone replacement wave."
The terminal chip is ready, and the options are more abundant.
Generally speaking, terminal chips lag behind network systems by 12-18 months. But in the 5G era, the commercial speed of terminal chips has repeatedly refreshed industry expectations.
In terms of chips, reviewing the development history of the past few generations of mobile communications, the launch of new standard mobile phones must depend on the face of the chip, and the straightforward point is the face of Qualcomm's chip launch and mass production speed. In the 5G era, Qualcomm has not rushed to the forefront.
Chip vendors represented by Huawei Hisilicon even launched earlier than Qualcomm 5G chips, whether it was the original Kirin 980+ Barron 5000 dual-mode 5G baseband, Kirin 990+ Barron 5000 dual-mode 5G baseband, or the latest Kirin 990 fully integrated SoC 5G chip, Huawei Hisilicon supports Huawei's first batch of 5G mobile phones in the industry.
At the end of November, MediaTek also released its 5G mobile platform "Teana" and its first 5G modem SoC chip Teana 1000; for more mobile phone manufacturers to cheer, Qualcomm released three 5G chips Snapdragon 865, Snapdragon 765 and Snapdragon 765G, Qualcomm's volume in the mobile phone chip market is bound to inject strong momentum into the 5G mobile phone market.
At this point, mobile phone manufacturers have a wealth of options in terms of 5G chips. Both flagship and sub-flagship 5G chips have solutions available. With the premature maturity of 5G chips, mobile phone manufacturers desperately hoping to take the lead in the 5G era naturally accelerate the launch of new 5G mobile phones.
According to the data reported by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in November 2019, 56 new models were launched, an increase of 43.6% year-on-year, of which 21 were 2G mobile phones, 31 were 4G mobile phones, and 4 were 5G mobile phones.
From January to November 2019, 538 new models were listed, including 131 2G mobile phones, 1 3G mobile phone, 382 4G mobile phones, and 24 5G mobile phones.
It is understood that there are several new 5G mobile phones that will be released at the end of this year. It can be seen that nearly 30 5G mobile phones also provide a wealth of options for consumers who want to switch to 5G mobile phones.
Starting from 1999 yuan, covering multiple price stalls, reducing user replacement costs.
From the author's observation, the most interesting thing in the 5G era is that many things are not carried out according to industry expectations. For example, the commercial time is half a year in advance, 5G tariffs are not that expensive, and 5G mobile phone prices are not sold at sky-high prices.
In fact, the current price of 5G mobile phones that have been released ranges from more than 10,000 yuan to less than 2,000 yuan: high-end price, Huawei 5G folding screen phone Huawei Mate X is priced at 16,999 yuan, Samsung GALAXY Note 10 + 5G mobile phone is sold The price is 7999 yuan, Huawei Mate30 5G version starts at 4999 yuan, Mate30 Pro 5G version starts at 6899 yuan; mid-range price, vivo IQOO Pro 5G mobile phone starts at 3798 yuan, Xiaomi 9 Pro 5G starts at 3699 yuan, Lenovo The Z6 Pro 5G phone starts at 3299 yuan, and the Honor V30 series 5G phone starts at 3299 yuan.
When it comes to the price of 5G mobile phones, we have to focus on Xiaomi, which has always been a price disruptor. This time it did a good thing.
On December 10th, Redmi, one of Xiaomi ’s dual brands, officially released the first Redmi brand ’s 5G mobile phone, the Redmi K30 5G version, starting at 1999 yuan. The price of 5G mobile phones was reduced to less than 2,000 yuan in one step.
Looking back at the wave of 4G phone replacements, when the price of 4G mobile phones dropped below 2,000 yuan, the penetration rate of 4G mobile phones began to increase rapidly.
When 5G mobile phones also reach below 2,000 yuan, major mobile phone manufacturers may follow the example of launching lower-priced 5G mobile phones in order to maintain competitiveness, and then ignite the 5G market, setting off a "5G mobile phone replacement wave" and even driving the overall mobile phone market. Increased sales.
Thousand Yuan 5G mobile phone may be released in advance.
With the advent of the "5G mobile phone replacement wave" ahead of time, mobile phone manufacturers who have been unable to hold back, in order to take the lead in the 5G era, I am afraid that the price will be more aggressive.
Although the price of Xiaomi's Redmi K30 5G version starting from 1999 yuan is already "floating on the ground", it is foreseeable that other 5G mobile phones equipped with Qualcomm Snapdragon 765G chips will not be too expensive, such as OPPO New products such as Reno3Pro 5G mobile phones equipped with Snapdragon 765G to be released on December 26.
meanwhile, mobile phone manufacturers with relatively low-cost MediaTek 5G chips may have more room for price reduction; in addition, Huawei Hisilicon The Kirin 8 series and 7 series 5G chips in the mid-range market may be launched in advance to accelerate the launch of Huawei's mid-range and even low-end 5G mobile phones.
According to China Mobile's prediction, when the price of a smartphone is more than 4,000 yuan, the market share of 5G mobile phones will be about 15%; when the price of a smartphone is more than 2,000 yuan, the market share of 5G mobile phones will be about 41%; when the price of a smartphone is more than 1,000 yuan At that time, the 5G mobile phone market share will be about 79%; it is expected that by the end of 2020, 5G thousand yuan devices will be available, and China's 5G smartphone market will reach tens to billions by 2020.
In addition, it is said that after the press conference, Lu Weibing, vice president of Xiaomi Group, president of China, and general manager of Redmi brand, also specially met with channel partners and had a discussion.
He shared the determination and speed of Xiaomi / Redmi to accelerate the switch from 4G to 5G products. It is hoped that the 4G products above 2,000 yuan will be quickly cleared to fully meet the 5G era.
Lu Weibing believes that the entry point to solve the current 5G development without killer business applications and other difficulties is the rapid popularization of 5G terminals. When the applications are not up, the rapid popularization of terminals must be driven by price, and 5G mobile phones are rapidly popularized by price. Then go to drive application development.
Lei Jun, the founder, chairman and CEO of Xiaomi Group, has also stated many times before: "Xiaomi will fully promote the development and promotion of 5G mobile phones, and plans to launch more than 10 5G mobile phones by 2020.
Xiaomi is confident to grasp the wide application of 5G technology. Great market opportunity and strive to popularize 5G technology in the shortest possible time. "
Honor President George Zhao had previously stated in an exclusive interview: "In addition to the Honor Play series may consider retaining 4G products in a certain range in 2020, all other Honor series will be 5G products next year, when the price is expected to be Drill down to the level of 2000 yuan or even 1500 yuan. "
It can be seen that not only many mainstream mobile phone brands will switch to 5G in the 2020 new product release plan; moreover, the industry generally expected that 5G 5G mobile phones will appear at the end of 2020 or 2021, but from the current situation, as the industry chain accelerates to mature.
With the needs of market competition, the price of 5G mobile phones is also expected to enter the era of thousands of handsets in advance. It is reported that there are already manufacturers that plan to launch a thousand yuan 5G mobile phone in the first half of 2020, which also means that the price war on 5G mobile phones will begin in advance.
When 5G mobile phones are no longer a small luxury, 5G mobile phones with high cost performance will allow the "5G mobile phone replacement wave" to come ahead of schedule.
