Ren Zhengfei said that Huawei will continue to grow in 2020, but the rate will not be very high, according to his interview by the Los Angeles Times on November 18 released by Huawei on Friday night.
The Huawei founder said that Huawei's growth rate has dropped to 17% in October this year and is expected to be around 10% in 2020.
Ren Zhengfei said that he personally believes Huawei may start large-scale growth in 2021, but the top management team believes that the return to large-scale growth will be in 2022.
He believes that the senior team is thinking more cautiously, so he issued a document predicting that the scale of growth will begin in 2022.
The following is part of the summary of Ren Zhengfei's interview with the Los Angeles Times:
1. Norman Pearlstine: Recently I am also watching some of the minutes you have interviewed by other media, which reminds me of your exchanges with me in March. You said at the time that you were worried that Huawei employees might become too rich, complacent, and material. If the situation facing Huawei becomes more difficult, Huawei can return to its original state again.
You later stated in an interview with other media that compared with previous concerns, Huawei's performance was actually good. You also said that 2020 will be the year that determines Huawei's fate, and Huawei will face the greatest risks. Since you have performed better than expected this year, why are you so worried about 2020? What worries you in 2020?
Ren Zhengfei: In fact, we are not too worried about 2020, we think there will be a certain scale of development. 2020 is our survival under US sanctions throughout the year, so that the world will know more that Huawei will survive very well under the strong US sanctions. Journalists are welcome to see if we are still alive next year.
It is now predicted that Huawei should still grow in 2020, but the growth rate will not be too high. The growth rate in October this year has dropped to 17%, and it is estimated that it will be around 10% in 2020. This may be the lowest estimate, and it may be better.
I think that we may start to grow on a large scale in 2021, but the high-level team believes that the return to large-scale growth will be in 2022. I personally have differences with the high-level team. I think they are thinking about it more securely, so the document I issued is to predict that the scale of growth will begin in 2022.
2. David Pierson, Southeast Asia reporter for the Los Angeles Times: To what extent has Huawei been included in the "Entity List" to accelerate the process of Huawei's self-developed chips and building the Huawei mobile platform software ecosystem?
Ren Zhengfei: There is a promotion, but the extent of the promotion is uncertain.
David Pierson: Can you introduce Huawei's chip strategy? There are reports that Huawei is hoarding chips to ensure continued supply of mobile phones. Can you tell us about Huawei's current chip supply and plans to further promote the development of the mobile phone business?
Ren Zhengfei: Can people who make chips go to software? I have never heard of it. The development of our chips has never stopped, has not changed, and has been steadily advancing. The operating system and ecosystem of mobile phones is software. When we upgraded software capabilities, we didn't say that we should reduce hardware capabilities.
David Pierson: Before Huawei was added to the "physical list", did Huawei hoard many chips from its own chip suppliers. After the "physical list" caused difficulties, did Huawei ensure a continuous supply of semiconductors to support the continued development of the mobile phone business?
Ren Zhengfei: Huawei's sales revenue this year is very large. If we want to ensure supply by hoarding chips, we need tens of billions of dollars. Does Huawei have so much money to hoard? Suppliers don't sell so much to us. Therefore, we did not develop by hoarding chips.
The problem now is that the market cannot be supplied. Why is there a snap-up in the market? Because we can't produce so many things and the chips can't be supplied, especially TSMC's output is not enough to meet the large demand. Therefore, it is impossible to use the storage method. What if these stocks are out of date? This is the traditional mode of thinking.
3. Norman Pearlstine: Do you think Harmony OS will become another operating system besides Android and Apple operating systems?
Ren Zhengfei: Harmony OS itself is used for the Internet of Things. The most important high bandwidth and low latency of the Internet of Things. Unmanned, automatic production requires low latency. If we can't get the supply and guarantee, will we turn these things into the operating system of the mobile phone, and can it be opened as this system? It's not yet sure whether we have this ability.
