Global PC (including tablets) shipments will fall 7% in 2020 due to the impact of the new coronavirus outbreak, said market research firm Canalys.
Canalys expects the global personal computer market to remain flat in 2021 and return to 2% growth by 2022.
PC shipments fell by about 9% during the first quarter of this year, and Canalys predicts a small uptick into the second and third quarters, but shipments are still expected to fall year-over-year.
This is because the inevitable economic downturn caused by the epidemic will cause consumers or businesses to carefully consider whether to upgrade and replace the product in their hands.
Although the outbreak has now been effectively mitigated, Canalys is still not bullish on the post-2020 quarters, with Canalys expecting global PC shipments to continue to decline in the post-2020 quarters.
But Canalys believes the worst is over, and while the decline in shipments is the general trend, Canalys expects the decline in the second three or four quarters of the year to be less than in the first quarter.
China's resumption of normal PC supply chains, coupled with rising demand for telecommuting and online classes, will partially offset the negative impact.
Laptops are undoubtedly the growth engine for the PC industry, becoming the preferred choice for telecommuting and online classes, though this will further squeeze the viability of desktops and tablets.
Specific to the Chinese market, Canalys predicts that PC and tablet shipments will decline by 3% in 2020.
Canalys also expects demand growth in the first quarter of 2020 to lead to a significant increase in sales in the second quarter of 2020, culminating in a 4% increase in 2021.